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Общая теория глобализации



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Общая теория глобализации


Mikhail Delyagin, Doctor of EconomicsPublic director of Globalization Problem Institute General theory of globalization «World for Russia: the way we need it and what we can do with it» (Analytical report open part in brief) September 1998 Contents:|Resume |2 ||I. Information technologies expansion |3 | || On difference significance in the technological time | ||speed | ||1.2. New resources for new technologies |9 ||1.3. Old technologies «depreciation» |10 ||II. Several consequences of markets globalization |12 ||2.1. Competition globalization – monopolies globalization |12 ||2.2. «Euro»: suppression of threat and destructive egoism |13 ||!2.3. Financial competition |14 || Technological process slowdown | ||III. Global regulation for global competition |17 ||3.1. What will unite the world into «Economic UNO»? |17 |w6 ||3.3. Value of global regulation |18 | About the author in brief Delyagin, Mikhail Gennadjevich, born in 1968, Doctor of Economics. From 1990 till 1993 – expert of the B. Eltsyn Group of Experts, since1994 – leading analyst of the President of Russia Analytic Department,since 1996 – referent of the President of Russia assistant. Since March1997 – advisor of the vice-prime-minister – Minister of Internals, sinceJune 1997 – advisor of the first vice-prime-minister Mr. B. Nemtsov. On hisleaving the government one day prior to August 17th, he established aGlobalization Problem Institute. In the beginning of October 1998 after newgovernment under Mr. Primakov had started its work, he was restored at thepublic service. He has more than 300 publications (including in the USA, Germany,France, China, India, Egypt etc.), 4 monographs, with the latest - «Economyof non-payments» was republished for three times since 1996 till 1997. Resume1. Information technologies development has brought to: . «meta-technologies» creation, application of which makes it impossible for the party which applies such technologies to compete with the developers of these technologies; . reorientation of technologies from necessary material objects formation to necessary type of conscious and culture formation (transformation from high-tech to high-hume); . acceleration of information technologies development to such extent that «short», theoretical investments are productive for the most advanced information technologies; . approximate depreciation of traditional technologies; . Information society creation in which money plays second role as compared with technologies.7. Major humanity technological development prospects: . Exacerbation and compelling character acquisition by divultion between developed and backward countries, and also between developed countries and creating new technologies and the rest developed countries; . Insulation of people engaged in information technologies into internal «information community», its concentration in the territory of the developed countries; slow concentration of the «information community» of the world and together with it concentration of the world progress in the «most developed» countries; . progress termination beyond the developed countries; social and financial degradation of the developing countries; . Possible abrupt slowdown of the progress in the result of global financial crises and destructive competition between the USа and European Currency Union.12. Global monopolies formation is being performed: . At global markets of separate financial instruments; . In the course of these markets integration process (reduction of the «transformation value» among them to negligible level) as information technologies advance – in the form of the united global monopoly. These processes will demand in the nearest future creation of theovernational regulation mechanism for global monopolies, which will be ofmore malaise character.| The whole development of the humanity including in the field of ||economics is determined nowadays and will be determined in the ||nearest decade by progress to the new qualitative level with two ||fundamental processes simultaneously: new technologies development, ||information technologies primarily, and based on it quick competition||globalization, primarily in the financial markets. | !lvl0I. Information technologies expansion 1.1. Information technologies: money recedes into the background Technological development has brought in the middle nineties to actualcreation by the most advanced part of the humanity that very «informationcommunity» which has been widely discussed for the last decades and so thatno one takes the matter seriously. Realities of its functioning, casual connections and competitivepotential by the reason of intellectual and technological gap can be hardlyperceivable by those who are beyond of that process. The most important way of showing this qualitative technologicalbreakthrough which has lead to creation of the information society and atthe same time one of its major parts is creation and quick distribution ofthe so-called «meta-technologies». Specifics of this type of technologies lies in that that the fact ofthier implementation makes for the party which uses such technologiesprincipially impossible to compete with the developer of these technologiesin a serious level. This may be called a price for access to theeffectiveness of a higher level which is provided by such technologies andwhich might be found in dealer and licensed systems. Modern advancedtechnologies in direct or indirect form place the user in the position of alicensee. The most telling examples of meta-technologies are: . Network computer: distribution of its memory in the net provides the developer with the whole information of the user and allows the developer to interfere into activity of the latter or even to control it (external control principle of the plugged in computer has bee already realized); . Modern communication technologies which allow to wiretap all telephone messages all over the world; in the nearest future computer processing of the whole volume of these messages and also wiretap of all messages in the Internet will be possible; . Different organization technologies; their main subgroups: * Control technologies, including corporation activity organization: oriented to culture and value system of the country the developer, such technologies reduce competitiveness of the corporations which represent other cultures; we should also note that in general distribution within a society of a foreign types of culture which do not integrate with the culture of the society and as the result the culture which not only enriches it but remains detached from it, makes competitiveness of this society weaker; * Formation of the mass conscious technology: permanent adaptation of the latter to the forms of influence arouses objective necessity in permanent renovation of the forms; without renovated technologies which at first appear in the leading country and then are distributed in other countries mass conscious of the society using technologies which influence it will get out of hand of the state. Nowadays the said technologies have become predominating for theirbeing the most productive. These technologies having sweepingly spread forthe last years have already become a technological component of theinformation society: if we speak about it from the technological point ofview we possibly half-consciously and non knowing about their peculiaritieswe intend first of all meta-technologies. It is quite natural, that conscious transformation from creation ofnew technologies to their distribution and which is followed by creation ofinformation society was expressed in the clearest form by the leader ofthis process Mr. W. Gates. He pointed out that the main factor forinformation technologies development as compared with the previous of 1997year, lays not in their upgrading but in complex usage of already existingtechnical means for «information transparency» of all countries —«transparency» as far as it can be understood quiet homogeneous for thecountries creating meta-technologies and aiming at protection of theirglobal competitive advantages. But significance of information technology distribution is not limitedby creation of meta-technologies and safe provision of psychological,intellectual and technological leadership of their creators. Besidesprovision of global information transparency the most important part ofinformation technologies is the possibility (in 1999 it is still potential)for deep and quite free reconstruction of mass conscious. The point is that unlike traditional «material» technologies theproduct of which are the goods, the product of information technologiesnolens volens is a certain condition of the human conscious including massconscious. Moreover: the most significant part of information technologieswas primarily aimed at such reconstruction of human conscious taking itinto consideration as the major purpose for influence. It is more effective to influence conscious than to influence thematerial. Technologies connected with it have already received the name.They are called «high-hume» versus «high-tech». In previous timestechnologies were oriented to matter but nowadays they are reorienting tothe public conscience, public culture. Besides their high productivity,«high-hume» technologies differ with high changeability, i.e. maximum speedof making progress. The pioneers of their exploration — the USа— engage the most mobileand in correspondingly the most effective form of financial capital —venture capital — to creation of the most effective type of informationtechnologies. Engagement of such capital to creation of the ordinarytechnologies as it is may be shown by the experience of the developingcountries is impossible because of «slowness» of the non-informationtechnologies: performance of any project connected with such technologiesdemand for larger time period than traditionally «short» venture capital isready to be invested. In the result of it we observe destructive non-compliance of the speedof the venture capital turnover and establishment of traditionaltechnologies. Wide-ranging investments of the venture capital are noteffective for the national economy because of the said factors: it leaveswithout creating anything real and leaving after it only desolation. But the speed of information technology development has a qualitativehigher rank than ordinary technologies. That is why informationtechnologies are the only type of technologies in respect of which «short»venture capital has a quite normal productivity. Their technological cycleis so small that it corresponds to the speed of the financial capitalturnover. That is why the American economy should not be afraid of «distending asoap exchange bubble»: it looks like a soap bubble only from outside.Actually the huge part of these venture investments is directed into theinformation technologies and at expense of their accelerated tempo of theirdevelopment carries for their recipient quite normal productive but notventure character. This is the principal advantage of the American economy over economicsof other countries of the world. This is the reason for its medium termstability in the forthcoming global financial|On difference significance in the technological time speed ||Significance of the time factor in new conditions is evidently ||demonstrated by the mass bankruptcy of computer firms in the USA. The||bankruptcy is followed by the fact that implementation of new ||technological principles demands for such period of time that these ||principles become outdated. ||Thus, the company which directs a part of its resources from the ||sphere of technological race to the practical realization of new ||decisions reaches the slow scale of «technological time» and fails as||compared with its competitors which remain in the zone of «pure» ||sphere of new ideas development in which the technological times ||changes in a quicker way. | But application of «high-hume» technologies is connected also withdanger. Thus, seeming easiness and impunity of conscious influence arousethe most dangerous professional illness of the employees engaged in thesphere of public relations – it! is the temptation to solve problems not inthe real way but with the help of the so-called «brainwashing» method or wemay use more exact German analogue of this term: ote Seelenmassage». The first problem of «high-hume» is connected with it: on carryingaway by it the control system (of the state or of the corporation) startsthe process of self-hypnosis that makes it inadequate. It is principallyimportant: «high-hume» technologies are dangerous not only for the objectof their influence, but for their user as they also transform conscious ofthe user. The second problem: to reach the political result it will be enoughfor the user of the «high-hume» technology to form necessary type ofconscious of no more than 20% of the population being the elite of thesociety and influence on taking resolutions and being the example. Efforts in this direction evidently draw the line between the eliteand general mass of population and create within the society internaldisagreements between the self-hypnosed elite and the rest population.Moreover: the elite being apart from the population began to percept theideas, which correspond to its principles. In the result of it 80% of theintellectual potential of the society is lost – while the Thus, gradual appliance of information technologies in respect of theelite class of the society is limited by the area of democratic borders ofthe elite class itself and that is why it reduces the society potential. Wesaw the example of the Russian reformers of 1992 — 1998 years, who couldrun away from the population by application such advanced informationtechnologies to themselves to such extent as the communists could do forseventy years of their domination. In the result of it we have a paradox: more advanced informa6tionsociety should be less flexible and adaptive and as a result less viablebut more stable in its confrontation with non-information society. Is notit the reason for paradox viability of the authoritarian regimes in the endof XX century? It is possible that this phenomenon is an «implemented guarantee» fromthe informational imperialism, from subordination of the entire world toone the most informed country. And the total mortification of the consciousof other countries with the help of information technologies is impossiblebecause of differences in cultural aspect which automatically defendminimal intellectual and information sovereignty of each nation separately.But it would be too naive to hope for it as the major resolution of theforthcoming problems under the circumstances of gradual integration ofcultures into united culture for the whole world (On the first stage intothree major cultures — Christian, Islamic and Buddhistic). Taking into consideration a private case of information war – «cultureaggression» (i.e. obtrusion of its own culture to the society the potentialof which it does not correspond) as an instrument of internationalcompetition (applied only mainly in the inconscient way, in the order ofmarkets winning for sale — the carries of such culture), we should re-estimate the role playing by traditions. Traditions are the psychological protection from something new: it isthe attempt to live as if nothing has happened. In the conditions ofreconstruction of mass conscious of actual and probable competitors of thetradition starts to act not like an ostrich, but it goes throughminimization of negative consequences in changes having «squatter» order:attempt to cancel by ignoring of these charges or cancellation of theirmajor part. I.e. it is a spontaneous reflection of the information attackby the information method. * * * The above said means that creation and distribution of meta-technologies reduces significance of financial resources from the point ofview of competitiveness of the societies and corporations: if they havebeen the main source of power earlier, now they become only itsconsequence. Intellect has become the main source of the market power.Intellect is embodied in organizational structures of the research andmarket corporations creating meta-technologies and holding control oversuch technologies. Rephrasing Mr. M. Fridman we can say that money recedes into thebackground after creation of the information society. The reason lies inthe following: that property right for the meta-technologies makes anorganically inalienable part of the holder and his intellect, with the helpof which these technologies have been created and are supported, accordingto technological reasons. Meta-technologies in a greater degree will transform in a «secondnature» making the borders and creating conditions for development of thepersonality and the humanity in general. As such these technologies willgradually exchange market relationship and property rights performing thesefunctions since the moment of money appearance. 1.2. New resources for new technologies Disintegration of the USSR has given to the developed countries such afinancial and intellectual possibility that they were able to speed uptheir development on the «lagan» of the disintegrated USSR (differences inorientations and correspondingly outlook for Europe and the USа shows thatthe first one has got finances and the latter – intellect). Thus, havingwon in the cold war developed countries not only destroyed their globalantagonist as we have got used to consider but they managed to do more:they have captured and used its resources which were truly speakingdreadfully used (the socialism differed from the capitalism also in thefact that on preparing the best in the world people resources it unitedthem into organizations in the worst way). It has a principal importance that in the new informationpostindustrial world the most important resources are first of all financesand intellect, which may travel very easily from one territory to another,but not the territory with fixed production and people. That is why the appeal to the people from developed countries, who arecapable to organize system of government, had no sense in the nineties: newmajor resources for development are not attached to a certain territory!Nowadays the effective frontier consists not only in recovery of thesociety within such a territory but otherwise in isolation within thesociety with further exemption from its main part of healthy andprogressive elements, i.e. people – carriers of finances and intellect. In such method of frontier the progress of the more developed«frontiering» society goes at expense of degradation of the society onfrontier, and the scales of degradation of the society on destruction outgovictory in culture and in progress of the more developed society. Ascompared with traditional harmonic processes of development, development atexpense of a alien degradation has always the character of a «play withnegative sum». Thus, distribution of information technologies has changed on aqualitative level value of resources placing on the top position intellectand finances, which are more mobile nowadays. It has changed the process ofcooperation between developed and developing countries: constructivefrontier of the last by the latter with the help of direct investments intothe real sector has started to climb down to the destructive frontier withthe help of exemption of financial and intellectual resources. Understanding of realias and consequences of such transformation hasgiven birth to the theory of «dead countries»: under influence of the newinformation imperialism, the developing countries become actually «dead»,as they irretrievably loose not only the most important intellectualresources for development but also the possibility to produce them. Thisleaves nothing in store for them. 1.3. Old technologies «depreciation» Irreversible lag of the developing countries is creating not only bythe reason of «wash» from them of the most valuable under the newconditions resources, and also due to collapse of the usefulness oftraditional resources and technologies which these societies dispose. Asthe most important result of each new level of development of the humanityfrom the point of view of the practical politics is comparativedepreciation of all «old» technologies and products or their appliance asthey are distributed. Depth of such depreciation will be in proportion to the primitivenessof the «old» technologies and to the level of monopolization andcompetitiveness of the market of such technology products. In accordancewith this rule we have a depreciation first of all technologies of themineral industry because of distribution of the information technologies.First of all this process influences oil, world market of which isliberalized in the most extent. And as the result of it we have a regular reduction of its price inthe world market (in 1999 according to estimations to the level of no morethan 8 dollar per barrel) that is followed not so much by the agreementbetween the USаcorporation and the Saudi Arabia but more deeper factor:creation of new information technological lifestyle which has newqualitative level. Such lifestyle has started depreciation of the previouslifestyles by the fact of its appearance. That is why reduction of prices all over the world for the rawmaterials and in a broader sense for the products engaging littleintellectual work will become a tendency deviation from which will be non-significant fluctuations. In this sense the USаactively placing its not somuch ecologically but intellectually «impure», i.e. too simple productionshas got a maximal guard from negative consequences of their own technicalbreakthrough. * * * Summing up the above said we may make a list of consequences for newtechnologies development: . Exacerbation and acquisition of final – at the same time keeping the existing tendencies – compelling character between: v developed and the rest countries; v creating new technological principles by the developed countries (it is possible that we should use the term «the most developed / advanced countries») and the rest developed countries; . Insulation, which take place in all countries, of people engaged in information technologies into internal «information community», its concentration in the territory of the developed countries; slow concentration of the «information community» of the world and together with it concentration of the world progress in the «most developed» countries; . progress termination or its abrupt slowdown (at least technical) beyond the developed countries; social and financial degradation of the developing countries; . reduction of the number of developed and the most developed countries because of hard competition. XXVI. Several consequences of markets globalization 2.1. Competition globalization – monopolies globalization The process of distribution of information technologies is influencedby the process of globalization which is created by the process ofdistribution of information technologies but which has the same level ofimportance. Formation of the united world markets at least in the financialsphere and gradual integration of the global markets of different financialinstruments into united world market includes into the agenda the questionreferring to creation of the global monopolies. The reason of it is very simple: it is impossible to divide a singlemarket. Well-known examples of market division had either quite a short periodof existence, as compared with the term of existence of the dominationproduct, or were based on objective backsets. That made access to a part ofcompetitors to any principally significant element of the market morecomplicated. Information technologies reducing transaction expenses to minimum andalso an «entrance fee» to the global financial markets destroy thesebacksets, eliminating any possibilities for any stable part of thesemarkets. Term of existence of the dominating product – information – isgoing down to zero that makes practically impossible even temporal divisionof these markets. In the result of it creation of global monopolies has got twosimultaneous directions: Formation of global monopolies in the global markets of separatefinancial instruments; Formation of the united global monopoly in the result of integrationof the said markets (reduction of «price for transformation» from onemarket to another down to a very small level). The American government plays the role of the latter monopoly as ithas very close contacts with the based in the territory of the USAtransnational corporations including financial most of which due to thespecifics of their activity do not need any organizational formation. The matter may have the following form: the world policy will recentlyterminates its existence on the state level, transforming, on one part, tothe national level of global groups of capitals and technologies and on theother part – to the internal level of political life of the countrycontrolling over the major part of these capitals and technologies. (In 1997 during the progress of the proamerican «team of youngreformers», the Russian lobbyists were greatly amazed at finding out thatthe sphere of the most effective lobbying of several matters in theinternal Russian politics had transformed from the Governmental level andthe level of the President's Administration to the level of the Congressand the USа administration. In the USSR all matters having principalimportance referring to development of the republics or regions should besolved not by their own authorities but by the curators of thecorresponding directions in Moscow – in the Central Committee of theCommunist Party of the Soviet Union and in the Council of Ministers.) 2.2. «Euro»: suppression of threat and destructive egoism In 1999 the rest tow parts of the process of monopoly globalizationwill elapse against the most important event of the century – commencementof the process for euro integration. Commencement of European currencyintegration will be the first real after establishment in the beginningnineties of the total world financial crisis attempt which has chances tobecome a success to depth regional integration up to the level which willdominate over global integration. Integration of «euro» will reduce foreign currency reserves of bankingsystems of the world (firstly of Europe) and will release from them a greatamount of dollars (only in China about tens milliards). Besides, settlements at European market of energy carriers are made indollars. Transformation of these settlements into euro will be afterintegration of the latter simply a matter of time, let it even be long, butit will release several tens of milliard dollars. At last purchasing capacity of the maximum European banknote in 500euros will be higher of the purchasing capacity of the maximum banknote ofthe USаdenominated in 100 dollars. It will transfer into euro the majorpart of the large sums in cash in Europe, and not only in the countries ofthe currency union but also in the neighboring countries, - also tens ofmilliard dollars. Apparent non-solicitude of the «Eurozone» leaders of the future ofsuch dollars carries an extremely destructive character of inactivity notonly for the USа but also for the rest of the world. Actually thisinactivity provokes the USа to strengthen the process of furtherdestabilization of the financial system of the world. European dollars and China dollars should be absorbed by othercountries not to destabilize the USаon their coming back to the country.Such absorbation of the world reserve currency to a great extent happensonly under the conditions of a very deep economic destabilization. Suchextent may be only compared with its release under the process of eurointegration. Thus, egoistic indifference of Europeans to welfare of the main globalcompetitor – the USа– in a strategic plan provokes the latter to makedestructive steps in respect of not only the eurozone economic power ofwhich is protected from a short-term influence but in respect of the thirdparties, i.e. countries which are less stable and due to this reason thesecountries are a favorable potential recipient of the releasing dollars. The most threatened regions are the Latin America (first of all it isBrazil) and several countries of the South-Eastern Asia and may be China. 2.3. Global financial competition outlook: technical progress slowdown Attempt to carry out sterilization of dollars through disorganizationof national economic system can not be the decision for a problem even ifsuch method allows to postpone the decision of the problem despite of itsbeing very expensive. There are two final and real variants to solve the problem: First – carrying out of long-term investments of the releasing dollarsinto large projects in the zones of mutual influence of the USа and Europe(for example: reconstruction of the Transsib aimed at establishment of theunited transport European-Asian line «London-Tokio»). As Russia stillremains under political influence of the USаand under economic influenceof Europe, sterilization of the extra dollars of the world in the territoryof Russia will be for the USаan exchange of a part of its geopoliticalinfluence to the short-term and medium-term economic safety. This variant demands for not only constructive approach to the problem(for example: it corresponds to the demands of the overheating economy ofJapan) but also consent of the Russian society for its deep healthening orat least readiness for it. The second variant – taking a pause which may be gained after dollarrunoff to the destabilizing «second economics» of the world fororganization of the head-on competitive collision with the eurozone, firstpremonition of which could be found with non-united European economy in theSeptember, 1992, and with only starting its trip to integration economy ofthe South-Eastern Asia in the second half of the 1997 year. This scheme allows the USаto take the strategic initiative and makeits own choice of time, sphere and the character for this collision thattaking into consideration factor of abruptness gives the USаan advantage. At static consideration of outlook for such collision based oncomparison of the already existing resources, Europe has advantageouschances. But as compared on the point of view of dynamics taking intoconsideration level of expenses, increasing role of newest technologies andactually «natural» (after disintegration of the USSR) monopoly of the USAon holding its holding and development performed with taking intoconsideration cardinal differences of the American and European bureaucracy(the first one – creates, the second – exists) makes us to make our choicein favor of the USаif we have a long-term outlook for future. Influence of «dynamic» factors of the technological quality andbureaucracy on the modern competition may be indirectly seen comparison oflosses borne by European and American capitals in Russia and South-EasternAsia: in both cases losses of Europeans were greater than that of theAmericans from all points of view. Besides, if in the USаlosses were borneonly by structures, which do not make the main part of the nationaleconomy, with high risk possibility, but in Europe – losses were borne bythe banks making the basic part of its banking system. There is no reason to consider that in the nearest years proportion ofeffectiveness of two financial and governmental systems will changegreatly. Besides, the USаwill always be able to carry out discrimination inthis or that form of at least a cash part of dollars which are outside theUSA. It may be performed for example under the slogan of struggle withinternational crime: first of all, this thesis is a standard method usingby the USаin its international competitiveness, and then – it is true:turnover of the major part of the US dollars outside the territory of theUSаin this or that form is connected with law violation, and, thus, theUSаprogress is based to a certain extent on lurking stimulation of thecriminal activity outside the USA. Of cause, such discrimination will abruptly limit the most importantfinancial part of the economic power of the USа– usage of their nationalcurrency as an international reserve currency and that is why it may beused only as «the last means». But in any case not depending on the result of the global financialconfrontation between the USаand European Currency Union it will lead tothe unfavorable event for the humanity: cardinal slowdown of the Chinaeconomic development which may be followed by its destabilization, regressand even disintegration. China mainly develops as an export oriented country integrated intothe markets of Europe and the USA. Collision will reduce purchasingcapacity of the outgoing party and correspondingly will reduce its importincluding from China. And this collision won’t depend on the result ofcollision between Europe and the USA. China will hardly bear such an abrupt reduction in its export, whichwill be the catalyst of all its internal problems, which are now in aninchoative stage. Destabilization of China will be such an event that willbe able up to 2015 year set the whole world economy in chaos (except thewinner: the USаor the eurozone). Truly speaking, victory of the latter will be a Pyrrhic victory:leaving behind the competitors and together with them the whole world for ageneration (of people and main technologies), it will loose the main salemarkets for its products that will slowdown its own development. In that case we will have a losing or at least conservation of themost advanced technologies: in the event of eurozone victory – because itdoes not know how to create them, and in the event of the USа victory –because of abrupt reduction of the sale markets and realization of thesetechnologies, that will weaken in cardinal way stimulus for theirdevelopment an will reduce resources engaged for such purposes. Thus, transformation of disagreement between the eurozone and the USAconnected with integration of euro and release of the extra dollars to thelevel of negative competition will be followed by the possibility ofslowdown of the development of the whole mankind. III. Global regulation for global competition 3.1. What will unite the world into «Economic UNO»? Possibility of slowdown of the development of general human technicalprogress as it was shown in the previous paragraph is a minor point of thegeneral rule: development may have only total character. Any attempt toforce back the competitors disrupt the development making it narrower andpoor and increasing the level of monopolization through reduction of salemarkets to the products of the winner, and leads, thus, to the totalslowdown of the development and stagnation. It is quite evident: for the mankind itself problems of its owndevelopment has already become very difficult according to our traditionalunderstanding. National states come across with such thing that their«habitat» is spontaneously formed by overnational structures (includingovernational structures holding meta-technologies), which, thus,predetermine their actions and lead the mankind to serious cataclysms andabrupt slowdown of the development due to their egoistic motives. If we do not want to allow the described consequences it is necessaryto establish that very international economic regulation which wasmentioned in practical terms after Lenin for the first time by G. Soros:«economic UNO», which differs from the already existing political economywith qualitatively smaller level of bureaucratization as financialprocesses have qualitative difference as they are more quick andcorrespondingly demand for their regulation quicker actions andeffectiveness in general than that of the political processes. Existing intellectual and consulting «stages» of global financialgroups notwithstanding to the dominating influence on them of the USA, maybecome an embryo of such organization. The main trace of character for suchorganization providing as in the case with UNO principal capability shallbecome the general understanding of reality of mutual destruction enforcingthe strongest partners to search for the compromise with more weak partnersand even vesting them with right of veto in respect of strategic and morecomplicated matters. 3.2. New generation of TNC «the wind of Gods» The main task of the organization aimed at performance ofinternational economic regulation is the regulation of the transnationalmonopoly activity. Besides it is very important to understand that the oldTNC are not the owner of the world any longer. The global financial groups,development of common and meta-technologies replace them. These groups arevery often non-formalized (that makes their regulation more complicated),but their effectiveness, mobility and many-sidedness exceed analoguequalities of the traditional TNC. For better understanding of the actual problem it will be enough tonote that coincided with increase of activity transformation in 1993 ofresearchers performed by transnational corporations from the special bodyof the UNO (UNCTC) which in general was able to meet the task, to the lowerlevel – the department of the UNCTC, which considers development of the TNCmainly from the departmental positions of this organization (in respect oftrade and development) and due to institutional reasons in general cannotcope with complex observance and analysis of their activity. This is the first sign of finding by this or that group of the crucialinfluence: termination of unpleasant for this group (as a minimumindependent, and in case of absence in demand in advertising – anyexternal) researches of this group. As we can see it in the first chapter, the technological leader of themankind – Mr. Gates – is only going to provide information transparency ofother countries – but overnational monopolies influencing the world greatlyleave him behind for several years preventively liquidating globally even apossibility of primitive statistical research of the development. 3.3. Value of global regulation Increase of influence of the overnational monopolies may reproduce thesituation of the end of twenties and thirties of this century. At that timedomination of private monopolies in the economies of the most developedcountries (including to certain extent the USSR) had lead to theirstagnation and to the Great Depression. There were formed on the nationallevels mechanisms of state control over monopolies in the course of thestruggle with the Great Depression, but it was defeated only in the courseof preparation for World War II. Taking into consideration these events but from the point of view ofpower, we should pay our attention to very significant drawbacks of thepurely economic approach. Thus, we got used to consider the immediate causeof the Great Depression the mistake made by the American government: inthat very moment when from the economic point of view it was necessary toalleviate financial policy it was otherwise cardinal toughen that wasfollowed by crash on the stock exchange and economic catastrophe. But the fact which from the economic point of view was inexcusablemistake, from the political point of view it was the only way out. As inthose days America had to solve the main and the only question of power.Question of the economic welfare was of a minor importance for anypractical politician. When there is a threat to economic conjuncture there was a question:who should govern the country – state under conditions of democracyoriented in general to the interests of the society, or several privatemonopolies («oligarchies») oriented to their own interests which are incontradiction to the social interests. And for the purpose of restoration of its dominating positionpartially lost after creation and heyday of private monopolies in thetwenties, the American government without any doubt and at once withdetermination which is very typical for Mr. Chubais (Russian reformer knownfor his extreme and drastic measures aimed at improvement of economicsituation in Russia – annotation of the translator) plunged the countryinto unknown in the history of mankind catastrophes which destroyed almostthe half of national economy and left a scar in the soul of every Americansurvived in these catastrophes. I would like also to underline two 60 years old events important forbetter understanding of the current situation. First of all, this dreadful resolution was right from the historicalpoint of view, as private monopolies due to objective reasons were unableto perform necessary functions of the state, and their domination could befollowed by greater catastrophe for the society, though it could happenlater (that is quite evidently shown on the example with Russia of 1995 –1998 years). Secondly, it was a spontaneous resolution adopted on the level ofcollective conscious (or even «collective unconscious») of the state andthe society. There are not proves for the fact that the political aspect ofresolution was established by several even holding posts of a very highrank participants of the event. Though it is evident that they fully sensedthe political aspect of the events described would never want to discloseit. It is possible that in the nearest future the mankind will have to gothrough spontaneous and non-understanding by several contemporariesresolution of such a question referring to power (taking into considerationaccelerating course of progress) on the level of world economy and worldpolicy. It is possible that it will be as difficult for developed economicsas it was difficult for industrial and financial centers of the USа in theend of twenties (that is indirectly proved by our forecast on slowdown oftechnical progress of the mankind), and it will be also destructive forless developed countries as it was destructive for the Americanagricultural godforsaken regions of that period of time. It is also possible that «economic UNO» which was spoken above will becreated as a mechanism to control over overnational corporations and mainlyto control over global financial groups. And as the result it may becomethe power of the world. As for the external event referring to our economic system (i.e.referring to the whole mankind) which will find out the way from depressionresulting after crisis, this event will also leave no time for delay andcompromise and it will mobilize the mankind as World War II did it. And itis impossible to foresee such event even with the lowest positive degree ofaccuracy. We cannot but hope the leaders of the mankind (to which we cannotrefer our country) like 60 years ago will be the first to see it and notifythe other with word of mouth of their strategist and city mad people.




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